One of the strongest arguments for developing solar and fusion energy alternatives is that we are running out of oil. Or are we?

Oil is always just about to run out. How long have we heard that?

It has become one of the old, weak, hopeful cries of the environmentalists. It is somehow not unlike that of the ever optimistic street corner preacher, who knows if he stands there long enough proclaiming the end of the world, he might get lucky and the planet might get struck by a meteorite. So, when we hear that tired refrain again. we all go, "Yeah, yeah, yeah. Give me a break."

Excuse Me But...

There's only one problem. Oil IS running out and it will hit the US economy like the proverbial meteorite if we're not prepared. Here's a quote:

"...the world will be facing a much bigger issue over the next 10 years, one that will keep prices inflated: We're running out of oil.

"Really."

--Popular Science, May 2000

When we here at Garden Earth first saw the analyses that suggested that oil was running out, we were pretty skeptical, having heard numerous stories that oil was going to be easily available into the twenty-second century. So we started digging and what we found was startlingly consistent. Most likely in about ten years, the world's daily production of oil will peak and then it will start to plummet. Even before that world demand is likely to far outstrip supply.

Burning Bright and Fast

We've included a cross section of respected analyses to give you a sense of the general consensus on this issue. We listed the reports in order from the most dismal projection to the most optimistic for when world oil production will peak.

Worst Case Scenario

1. Oil production will peak in FIVE YEARS.

In an analysis published in Forbes Magazine (not known for its wildly pro-environmental stances), Italian oil baron, Franco Bernabé, chief executive of the Italian oil company, ENI SpA, says the following. "My forecast is that between 2000 and 2005 the world will be reaching peak production from our known fields, and after that, output will decline."

Pretty Damn Bad Scenario

2. Oil production will peak in TEN YEARS.

This seems to be the figure supported by the most mainstream of the analyses. Both longtime petrochemical geologist Colin Campbell and the oil industry trade publication The Oil and Gas Journal have studies which estimate that this is the likely date when world production will start to decline. See the May 2000 issue of Popular Science, p. 56.

So Called "Best Case" Scenario

3. Oil production will peak in TEN TO TWENTY YEARS

This is according to Scientific American. Even the revised and more positive figures for oil reserves submitted by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) remain highly controversial among most industry professionals. All would agree that it isn't a question of if oil will run out, but when. We must also question how environmentally damaging our pursuit of what remains will be as we tear the Earth asunder using more extreme techniques to extract what little oil remains. This doesn't even touch on the horrendous environmental impact of burning the oil. However, even looking through rose colored glasses, diminished oil supply exacerbated by increased demand is a reality we now face.

So, there are two dreaded milestones ahead for oil consumers.

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