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Standing in a
Forest of Foresight
Anyone who has seriously studied the science affiliated with the phenomena of global warming can foresee likely consequences and can make reasonable predictions for our planet. Ironically, one of the predictions that can rationally be made is that much of what will occur will be unexpected. There will be consequences, probably negative, but when it comes to foreseeing all of the consequences of global warming, we are in uncharted territory.
Some people seem to be unaccountably reassured by this reality, as if uncertainty affords us a measure of protection and permission to do nothing. However, as the biogeochemists who study planetary systems and global warming are finding, there is a vast planet-wide chemical and energetic experiment being conducted by humanity, and like any form of experimentation, not every outcome can be foreseen. To underscore this concern, the very conservative, 40,000 member American Geophysical Union released a statement in December 1998, which said in part: "Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases affect the Earth-atmosphere energy balance, enhancing the natural greenhouse effect and thereby exerting a warming influence at the Earth's surface... There is no known geologic precedent for the transfer of carbon from the Earth's crust to atmospheric carbon dioxide, in quantities comparable to the burning of fossil fuels, without simultaneous changes in other parts of the carbon cycle and climate system."
See our article about fires in the Geology & Climate Section of Garden Earth.
Taking the Stage by Storm
In October of 1999, I stood with my co-author Dr. John Brandenburg on a stage in a lecture hall in London as we made what seemed at the time to be a very risky prediction. We said that Europe would have terrible storms of hurricane force, similar to those more typically associated with North America's coastal regions.
While this dire possibility seemed imminent to us, the predicted storm patterns were very much atypical of the normal climatic patterns of this region. Such storms are extremely rare in Europe and it would hardly have been surprising if the audience dismissed such predictions as preposterous.
Regretfully, the prophesy was fulfilled in just over two months when two storms released unprecedented hurricane force winds across continental Europe, resulting in over a hundred deaths and destroying buildings, electrical towers, and shockingly, 300 million trees.
Again and again, it is the trees that suffer the brunt of our meddling with the planet's natural systems, and the overwhelming loss of trees is one of the most serious problems the planet faces right now. Whether from fires, storms, insect infestations or from rainforests being cut down to make room for subsistence agriculture, this destruction of trees has been greatly accelerated by global warming. It is also one of the synergistic effects by which global warming increases by feeding on its effects.
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